Weekly Alpha Recap #194 | 17–23 August
SafePal data breach exposed personal information of ~40,000 customers. 3 project highlights and 16 projects in the Probably sheet.
TL;DR
News
Wallets & UX
SafePal data breach exposed personal information of ~40,000 customers
Hardware wallet sales in Russia more than doubled amid new crypto rules
Coldcard ships firmware update after large BTC theft, cites AI in bug discovery
Macro & Institutions
VanEck: multiple capitulation signals suggest Bitcoin correction may be easing
Bitcoin rally: spot ETFs, inflows and yields help push BTC past $69–70K
Bitcoin and ether ETFs see $2.6B inflows in strongest week since October
Norway sovereign wealth fund reports record indirect Bitcoin exposure (H1 2026)
Strategy sold ~3.46M MicroStrategy shares for ~$333.7M last week
Citi to launch Bitcoin custody as part of new Custody+ platform
Japan’s Metaplanet to create U.S. bitcoin treasury company via Super League acquisition
Upbit and Bithumb report ~50% declines in H1 revenue amid market contraction
Tokenized equities triple market share; Ondo, Binance bStocks and xStocks lead
Ripple partners with Jeonbuk Bank for 24/7 real-time cross-border remittances in South Korea
Nasdaq to launch overnight stock trading from 9PM–4AM ET in December
CFTC chair readies crypto rules if Congress fails to pass Clarity Act
BitGo secures South Korea virtual asset license, says it's first global crypto company to do so
Upbit trading volume spikes as South Korean investors re-enter crypto
Shinhan partners with Solana Foundation, Etherfuse and Orca for tokenized fund issuance
GSR’s Baehr: tokenized fixed income could be key for institutional collateral
Grayscale amends SEC filing as it moves closer to first U.S. Zcash ETF
Zcash hits eight-year high near $850 amid Grayscale ETF push
Fairmint CEO warns tokenized stocks could repeat 1960s 'paper crisis'
U.S. regulators advance crypto rulemaking — SEC proposals, OCC/Genius Act stablecoin work
Stablecoins & Hyperliquid
U.S. Treasury seeks comment on GENIUS Act stablecoin rules; Bessent says Treasury moving quickly
Ethena secures $1B FalconX facility to diversify USDe backing
Berachain rebrands $HONEY to Bera USD ($BUSD) as a USD stablecoin
Hyperliquid and Tradex propose pre-IPO perpetuals to the SEC (aim: hard-to-trade assets)
Hyperliquid: Trump/CFTC comments and HYPE token surge; Base perps live; policy push to SEC
Trump signals support for Hyperliquid as US onshores crypto trading
Drama & Shenanigans
Binance handed user data to Russia linked to arrest of Ukrainian donor
Binance halts transaction processing support for over a dozen platforms including HTX
Bybit sues North Korea and the Lazarus Group, secures preliminary injunction to freeze stolen assets
Bitpanda fined €70,000 in Austria’s first published MiCA enforcement case
Optimism-funded team's vote shifts $49M in OP tokens away from users
Chainalysis sues U.S. government after TRM Labs wins contract
BitMart weighs partial restart and creditor payouts after shutdown
Memecoin launchpad Printr ceases operations citing insufficient capital
ParagonsDAO to shut down and hold final bonding event for PDT holders
Prediction Markets
CFTC uses emergency authority to ensure Kalshi market stability amid NY lawsuit
Prediction market Novig sues Wisconsin AG over sports contracts
Kalshi files to launch perpetual futures tied to a U.S. stock index and copper
CME and Kalshi executives clash over prediction market oversight
Kalshi restricted in multiple U.S. states as CFTC targets prediction markets
JPMorgan ended banking relationship with Polymarket over regulatory concerns
Protocol & DeFi Updates
Compound replaces leadership and approves $52M budget to pursue institutional focus
Maya Protocol exploited for ~$1.7–11M; funds moved to Bitcoin address
BounceBit to sunset blockchain and migrate to BNB Chain after $3M exploit
Allbridge bridge exploited via forged CCTP-style message for ~$190k
Harmony exploiter forged trillions of ONE; Harmony plans pre-attack rollback
Neutrl pauses minting and redemptions after reserves exploited
Solana cuts mainnet slot time to 350ms in step toward 200ms goal
Infra, Dev & Culture
Kraken parent Payward joins Anthropic’s Project Glasswing for AI security work
Hackers exploited macOS Screen Sharing flaw to install Monero miners
MiCA regulatory cleanup is driving a new scam wave across the EU
Group forms to defend Bitcoin software as AI increases attack surface
Token Launches & Claims
Project Highlight
Base(d) CatMoni Score807WebsiteMoni's Review/Opinion:Base(d) Cat is a community-run memecoin hub for $BASECAT on Base; this week they asked CoinMarketCap to register basecat@basecatonbase.com to manage Basecat's self-reporting dashboard. They also pushed creative social content (TikTok and image posts) across their feed to promote the token.
Market cap: $12.6M -> $30.0M (+138.7%). ATH market cap: $41.1M.
riggles 🟩 ⬛️Moni Score328WebsiteMoni's Review/Opinion:riggles is an on-chain art experiment combining DeFi mechanics with collectible digital art, and this week they opened submissions/claims for early participants, with submissions filling in 30 minutes and closing while claims stayed open. They also posted their Art Thesis and multiple calls to claim or submit wallets for review.
CT discussion around it noted "NFT on Robinhood // still early" as a signal of interest in Robinhood-deployed NFTs.
FlockFallMoni Score223WebsiteMoni's Review/Opinion:An onchain risk-strategy game that ties mint-first playable NFTs, a Market Vault and an in-game $SHELL economy to Uniswap v4 hooks; this week they ran a weekend giveaway announcing 4 free Genesis Crates with one winner per day. They also teased new NFT previews and said full Genesis details would drop later in the day.
They announced a weekend giveaway: 4 days, 4 FREE Genesis Crates, 4 winners (one winner a day).
Loser of the Week
z500_ansemioMoni Score86Moni's Review/Opinion:An onchain memecoin index account that posts the Z500 thesis and signals for token launches. This week the account repeatedly pushed the Z500 message and restated the index thesis across several posts.
Market cap: $1.1M -> $392.6K (-65.7%).
LogosMoni Score81WebsiteMoni's Review/Opinion:Logos builds formally verified guardrails that turn fund mandates into deterministic, on-chain checks for AI-driven trading, and this week they deliberately sent the vault an oversized order that was refused onchain and publicly observable. They also published threads explaining the Lean proofs (591 theorems) and the whitepaper.
Market cap: $764.7K -> $354.8K (-53.6%). ATH market cap: $1.0M.
unisoccsMoni Score65Moni's Review/Opinion:An on-chain football sticker album where each sticker is an ERC‑20–style token. They announced a foil Uniswap FC card was ripped from a pack (foil = 5/100; Uniswap FC = 1/100 = 1/2000).
Market cap: $518.6K -> $69.9K (-86.5%). ATH market cap: $471.0K.
genz500solMoni Score29Moni's Review/Opinion:A memecoin framing itself as a Gen Z alternative to traditional retirement vehicles that promises S&P exposure through dividends; this week they retweeted LaunchMemestonk's post about the first batch of token buybacks.
Market cap: $153.6K -> $18.6K (-87.9%).
better_ercMoni Score118Moni's Review/Opinion:A new token standard and launchpad designed to make fees, restrictions, hooks, and other deviations machine-readable and bytecode-verifiable in one call. They open-sourced the core launchpad source code this week and announced the system is fully deployed with a buyback-and-burn worker active.
Market cap: $110.8K -> $18.4K (-83.4%). ATH market cap: $141.4K; CT discussion around it noted one user said they "aped" despite not knowing the team.
Probably Sheet
Name | Segment | Network | Moni Score | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Other | - | Not launched | ||
Meme | Solana | Launched | ||
NFT | - | Not launched | ||
Meme | Solana | Launched | ||
NFT | - | Not launched | ||
NFT | Robinhood | Not launched | ||
NFT, DeFi, Other | - | Launched | ||
DeFi, Meme, Launchpad | Solana | Launched | ||
NFT | Ethereum | Not launched | ||
NFT | - | Not launched | ||
NFT | - | Not launched | ||
Meme | Base | Launched | ||
Launchpad, AI Agents, RWA | - | Not launched | ||
Meme | Solana | Launched | ||
Meme | Solana | Launched | ||
NFT | Apechain | Launched |
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